⁍ Biden is leading in the national polls by about 10 points.

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⁍ That’s 8 points better than Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by in 2016.

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⁍ When there’s a big swing, as the national polls imply in 2020, there are going to be some seemingly shocking results.

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– If Joe Biden decides to run for president in 2020, he’ll have to do so in a state that Donald Trump carried easily in 2016. That’s the takeaway from FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of a new Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. The poll has Biden at 51% and Trump at 44%, within the margin of error, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 2%. Biden is also leading in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, while Trump is up by 1 point in Ohio and 2 points in Texas. “The point: Biden seems to be leading or is quite competitive in a lot of states that Trump carried fairly easily four years ago,” writes Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post. “It makes a lot of sense given the national polling that Biden is putting a lot of seemingly red states into play. This doesn’t mean he’ll ultimately carry any of these states. If the national race tightens, these states will probably fall into Trump’s column.”