⁍ Two-thirds of 58 economists said there was a high risk that the U.S. economic rebound could be halted by the surge in coronavirus cases.

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⁍ Democratic control of the Senate, along with a win for the party’s presidential candidate Joe Biden, was predicted to yield a stronger near-term economic recovery.

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– The US economy isn’t expected to grow much over the next few years, according to a Reuters poll of 120 economists. The economy is expected to shrink 4% this year, instead of growing 3.7% as recently as last month. It’s also expected to shrink 4% next year, instead of growing 2.9%. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is expected to hold steady at 8.3% this year, 6.8% next, and 5.5% in 2022, the poll found. Some 80% said the jobless rate would not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2023 at the earliest. “The outcome of the election will likely dictate the trajectory for additional stimulus,” said a Bank of America Securities economist. “A clear victory could accelerate stimulus negotiations. In the event of a contested election, the political environment creates a challenge for additional stimulus.” The poll found that nearly two-thirds of the 58 economists who responded to an additional question said there was a high risk that the economic rebound could be halted by the surge in coronavirus cases, including five who said it was very high. “The pace of the recovery is already slowing as households and businesses are struggling with the impact of the lockdown and the virus,” one strategist said. “Meanwhile, the extension of the fiscal stimulus has yet to arrive, is late, and is likely to be modest.”