⁍ Libya’s oil sector, shattered by unrest since 2011, is back on the rise.

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⁍ The easing of a blockade by eastern forces has seen production recover to about 500,000 bpd.

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⁍ The government in Tripoli expects that to double by year-end.

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⁍ But a return to the country’s pre-civil war capacity of 1.6 million bpd appears some way off.

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– Since the fall of Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya’s oil production has been cut by more than 90% to around 100,000 barrels per day. But the easing of a blockade by eastern forces, which had cut output by more than 90% to around 100,000 barrels per day, has seen production recover to about 500,000 bpd. The government in Tripoli expects that to double by year-end. But after years of repeated shutdowns, damage to infrastructure, and lack of investment, a return to the country’s pre-civil war capacity of 1.6 million bpd appears some way off, per Reuters. The country’s biggest oilfield resumed operations on Oct. 11 at an initial production rate of around 40,000 bpd. By Oct. 19, the field was already producing at around half its 300,000 bpd capacity. Crude from the field feeds the 120,000 bpd Zawiya oil refinery, with the rest exported from the Zawiya oil terminal. The government in Tripoli expects that to double by year-end. The next big rises in Libyan oil production will come from the resumption of exports from the eastern terminals of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, and the El Feel oilfield in the southwest. Restarts at those sites could propel Libyan production above 1 million bpd. In September-December 2019, the terminal exported an average of nearly 300,000 bpd of crude, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. In September-December 2019, the terminal exported an average of nearly 110,000 bpd of crude, according to Vortexa. Exports in December 2019 hit nearly 190,000 bpd.