⁍ The worst is over for the Australian economy as coronavirus infections recede.
⁍ But lower immigration and high unemployment will keep the recovery path uneven.
⁍ The Australian economy slumped into its first recession since 1991 this year.
– The worst is over for the Australian economy after its first recession since 1991, according to a Reuters poll of 35 economists and analysts. The country is expected to have grown 1.5% last quarter and another 1.4% this quarter. That would still leave Australia’s economy 3.9% smaller in 2020 as a whole. “The international border is expected to remain closed until mid-2021,” one economist says. “This is expected to weigh on migration, tourism, and education exports. In addition, rising geopolitical tensions between Australia and mainland China are set to weigh on trade and foreign investment.’ Yet fiscal and monetary stimulus measures meant the economy was predicted to bounce back, expanding 3.0% on average next year and in 2022. “Australia has had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies,” another economist says. ” Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means the recovery in economic activity could surprise to the upside next year.” Among the risks: high unemployment, lower immigration, and a flare-up in Australia-China relationships.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-economy-poll-int/australias-economy-out-of-recession-but-recovery-path-bumpy-reuters-poll-idUSKBN27C00B